CHATHAM CAPITAL GROUP Investment Review & Outlook September 30, 2026 Savannah, Georgia · Hilton Head Island, South CarolinaContents I.Review II.How the Economy Has Changed III.How the Economy Is Persevering IV.Looking Forward V.What We Are Watching VI.Conclusions & Portfolio StrategyI. Review •S&P 500 earnings grew 32% year over year in the second quarter, against 23% expected at the end of June. •AI infrastructure companies led with 54% growth. Growth outside AI also strengthened, to 14% from 10% in the first quarter. * Excluding non-recurring gains. S&P 500 Q2 2026 EPS Growth: Estimate vs. Actual* Year-over-year EPS growth, Q2 2026 S&P 500 ex-Energy EPS Growth: AI Infrastructure vs. Rest Year-over-year EPS growth 3 CHATHAM CAPITAL GROUPSource: FactSet | Goldman SachsI. Review •Headline CPI inflation held near 3.3% to 3.5% over the summer. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, stayed near 2.5%. •The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreed to in April ended on July 8. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose from about $70 at the start of the quarter to above $90 in late September. US Inflation Rate: Headline vs. Core Year-over-year change WTI Crude Oil, Q3 2026 $ per barrel, daily 4 CHATHAM CAPITAL GROUPSource: BLS | CMEI. Review •On September 16the Fed raised its target range by a quarter point, to 3.75%-4.00%. It was the first increase since 2023. •Markets now expect afed funds rate of 4.50% by March 2027. That is about half a point higher than at the start of the quarter, or roughly two additional increases. Market-Implied March 2027 Fed Funds Rate Implied rate from fed funds futures 5 CHATHAM CAPITAL GROUPSource: Federal Reserve | CMEI. Review •Rising interest rates weighed on returns across nearly every asset class in the third quarter, most heavily on bonds, small-cap stocks, and REITs, whose values depend most directly on the cost of borrowing. •The resumption of conflict in the Middle East, with no resolution in sight, lifted commodity prices and lent support to gold, which rose despite higher interest rates. Returns by Asset Class: Q3 2026 and YTD Total return (%) 6 CHATHAM CAPITAL GROUPSource: Chatham Capital Group analysisII. How the Economy Has Changed •Oil prices have spiked twice in less than five years. The 2022 peak was the highest since 2008. •Inflation reached about 9% in the summer of 2022, the highest level in more than 40 years. WTI Crude Oil Price $ per barrel, weekly US Inflation Rate: Headline vs. Core Year-over-year change, monthly 7 CHATHAM CAPITAL GROUPSource: EIA | BLSII. How the Economy Has Changed •The effective tariff rate peaked at 11.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025, the highest since 1943 according to the Richmond Fed. •Interest rates surged from 2022 to 2023, recording their largest increase in more than 40 years. Effective US Tariff Rate Customs duties as % of goods imports, quarterly Increase in Interest Rates Through Rate Cycles Percentage-point increase, trough to peak 8 CHATHAM CAPITAL GROUPSource: Treasury | Census | Richmond Fed | Federal ReserveII. How the Economy Has Changed •Despite those headwinds, the effect on corporate earnings was mild. Trailing four-quarter S&P 500 operating earnings fell only about 5% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023. •Earnings have since risen more than 55% from the 2022 low. S&P 500 Trailing 4Q Operating EPS $ per share, trailing four quarters 9 CHATHAM CAPITAL GROUPSource: S&P GlobalNext >